Rocket Lab Heads Into Nov. 9 Earnings 65% Below Its High, With Neutron Now Delayed to 2027

KEY POINTS

• Rocket Lab reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9, with analysts expecting revenue of about $257 million against company guidance of $250 million to $265 million.
• The stock fell 12.2% on Nov. 5 and rose 15.4% on Nov. 6 to close at $53.07, which is 65% below its 52-week high of $151.
• With Neutron’s first launch pushed to 2027, the shares trade at about 25 times analysts’ 2027 revenue estimate, and today’s price sits below the $67.50 floor that sets the maximum share count for the Iridium deal.

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) will report third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 9, and getting there has been a wild ride. The stock dropped 12.2% on Thursday, jumped 15.4% on Friday and finished at $53.07. That is still 65% below its 52-week high of $151, and the big overhang is that Neutron, the rocket so much of the growth story leans on, won’t fly until 2027.

So this report has a different job than usual. It has to show that the business Rocket Lab already runs, Electron launches plus Space Systems, can keep growing while Neutron waits. I’ll walk through the numbers that decide that, plus a piece of valuation math and a share count wrinkle that I think get overlooked.

Rocket Lab Swung 12% Down and 15% Up in Two Days

Thursday’s drop had little to do with Rocket Lab itself. The Motley Fool tied it to a post-election selloff led by AI data center stocks, with investors worried about more scrutiny of data center buildouts, and it pointed out that Rocket Lab’s price-to-sales ratio of about 40 made it an easy target. I didn’t find a company announcement behind Friday’s bounce, either, so I’d treat both days as the market moving the whole sector rather than news about the business.

The bigger damage came earlier. Rocket Lab closed at $64.22 on Oct. 13, and the company announced the Neutron delay the following evening. It hasn’t closed above $60 since, and Friday’s $53.07 is still 17.4% below that Oct. 13 close.

What Neutron’s Move to 2027 Changed and What It Didn’t

The release said Neutron’s first launch is now expected in 2027, and it didn’t give a month or a reason. The reason came out in coverage of the company’s filings: NewSpace Economy reports that inspection of a newly built forward dome for the first-stage tank turned up defects, and that CEO Peter Beck indicated tank assembly and testing would run into early 2027. It is the second tank problem this year, after a first-stage tank ruptured during a pressure test on Jan. 21.

Here’s why the date matters beyond bragging rights. In August, CFO Adam Spice said adjusted EBITDA should turn positive in the quarter after Neutron’s first successful flight, with positive cash flow 18 to 24 months after that. So every quarter Neutron slips, both of those milestones slip with it. The $397 million SB-AMTI satellite contract needs Neutron too, and the same report notes that a confidential customer’s order for five Neutron and three Electron launches, originally spread across 2026 to 2029, has no revised dates yet.

What didn’t change is the part of the business that flies today. Rocket Lab’s launch backlog passed 100 missions after a 20-launch order from a Tokyo satellite imaging company on Sept. 30, second-quarter revenue rose 62% to $234.1 million, and total backlog stood at $2.36 billion at the end of June. None of that needs Neutron.

I covered the Neutron delay and what is still working at Rocket Lab in my latest video, if you want the longer version before Monday.

The Q3 Numbers That Decide Monday Night’s Reaction

Rocket Lab guided third-quarter revenue to $250 million to $265 million, and analysts sit at $257.2 million, almost exactly the midpoint. That would be growth of about 10% from the $234.1 million in Q2. Here is the full set of guidance numbers to hold the report against.

Metric	Company Q3 guidance
Revenue	$250 million to $265 million
GAAP gross margin	29% to 31%
Operating expenses	$143 million to $149 million
Adjusted EBITDA loss	$17 million to $23 million
Net interest income	$21 million

Gross margin is the line that looks like a step back, since Q2 came in at 36.1%. Management blamed contract mix: big satellite programs can run at gross margins in the mid-30% range, while smaller component products can clear 70%. That explanation holds up, but when margins swing on billing timing, one quarter tells you less than you’d like.

Rocket Lab also has a decent record against its own revenue ranges. It edged above the top of its range in Q1 ($200.3 million against $185 million to $200 million) and landed inside it in Q2 ($234.1 million against $225 million to $240 million). So a print in the upper half of $250 million to $265 million would be a normal one, anything near the top would be a good one, and anything under $250 million would be a clear disappointment.

Adjusted EBITDA is the other one. Management guided to a loss of $17 million to $23 million, against $11.8 million in Q1, so the loss is expected to widen. A loss smaller than $17 million would tell me the cost side is behaving even with Neutron work continuing.

At $53, the Stock Still Trades at 25 Times 2027 Sales

Cheaper isn’t the same as cheap. Analysts’ average estimate for 2027 revenue is $1.33 billion, up 38.7% from the $959 million they expect for 2026. On the 629.7 million shares reported at June 30, Friday’s $53.07 close works out to a market cap of about $33.4 billion, or 25.1 times that 2027 estimate. The share count has grown since June 30, so the real multiple is a little higher.

Close	Price	Market cap	Price to 2027 sales
Oct. 13	$64.22	$40.4 billion	30.4x
Nov. 5	$45.99	$29.0 billion	21.8x
Nov. 6	$53.07	$33.4 billion	25.1x

In other words, the Neutron delay took the multiple from 30.4 times to 25.1, and Thursday’s one-day drop briefly pushed it to 21.8. Analysts haven’t walked away, though. The average price target is $102.15, and 18 of 22 analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy, with none at sell. I treat that as a sentiment check rather than a reason to own it.

What I’d listen for on the call is whether management still stands behind growth at that pace with Neutron in 2027, because Electron, HASTE and Space Systems have to do more of the lifting until the bigger rocket flies.

Iridium Dilution Is Capped Out at Today’s Stock Price

Now for the wrinkle. Rocket Lab agreed in June to buy Iridium Communications Inc. (IRDM) for roughly $8 billion including debt, paying $27 in cash plus Rocket Lab stock for each Iridium share. The number of Rocket Lab shares is set by a collar: if Rocket Lab averages $67.50 or less over the 10 trading days before closing, Iridium holders get the maximum of about 42.4 million shares.

The stock is at $53.07, well under that floor, so at today’s price the collar is already maxed out. Add the 29.3 million shares Rocket Lab already sold through its at-the-market program and you get about 71.7 million new shares, or 11.2% of the 639.1 million counted at June 30. By my rough math, that puts the share count near 711 million. A further drop wouldn’t add shares, because the maximum is already reached. The stock only helps itself by climbing back above $67.50.

To be fair, the cash side looks better than the share side. Rocket Lab sold those 29.3 million shares at an average near $66.35, about 25% above Friday’s close, and the roughly $1.94 billion it raised covers about 68% of the $2.86 billion cash portion. The $3.6 billion bridge loan was also cancelled without a dollar borrowed.

The other open item is regulatory. Iridium’s shareholders approved the deal on Sept. 24 with 99.6% of the votes cast, but Ligado Networks, a satellite spectrum company, has asked the FCC to scrutinize the transaction, and the FCC’s schedule had replies due Nov. 9, the same day Rocket Lab reports. Completion is still targeted for mid-2027.

The Cash Cushion Can Absorb a Slower Neutron

Here’s the bear-case math. Rocket Lab used $187.5 million of free cash flow in the first half of 2026, made up of $134.4 million of operating cash outflow and $53.1 million of capital spending. At that pace, about $375 million a year, the $2.39 billion in cash and securities it held at June 30 covers roughly 6.4 years. That is before the cash owed to Iridium holders, and management has said cash use stays elevated while Neutron is in development.

So the cushion is real. The one concern that actually matters is the cost of time: every quarter Neutron slips, the spending continues without the revenue the rocket is supposed to bring, and shareholders pick up part of the tab through new shares. I don’t think that changes the picture for 2026. It does mean the next few years lean on Electron, HASTE and Space Systems executing, since those are the parts that fly and bill today.

Four Things I’m Watching in Monday’s Report

The report comes after the close, with the call at 5 p.m. Eastern. First, revenue against the $250 million to $265 million range. Second, the adjusted EBITDA loss against $17 million to $23 million. Third, any new language on Neutron, whether a month, a quarter or just “2027.” Fourth, the share count and any update on the Iridium timeline, because 711 million shares is the number the per-share math has to live with.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. I am not a registered investment advisor, so consult a licensed professional before investing. On the date of publication, I did not have any direct or indirect position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst estimates, price targets and the valuation scenarios in this article are illustrations based on assumptions, not predictions, and actual results may differ materially. Market data pulled November 7, 2026. Figures may be delayed or contain errors and change quickly, so verify current numbers before acting. Analyst ratings and other third-party views are reported as news and are not endorsed by me. Information may have changed since publication.