Palantir Stock Heads Into Q3 Earnings 12% Below Its October High

KEY POINTS

• Palantir reports third-quarter results after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, with analysts expecting about $2.18 billion in revenue and $0.41 per share.
• The stock closed Oct. 30 at $184.11, down 11.9% from its $209.05 record close on Oct. 9, and options pricing points to a post-report move of roughly 12% to 13%.
• A $2.18 billion quarter needs only a 0.9% beat on Palantir’s own guide, while the nine-quarter average beat is about 6.0%.

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) reports third-quarter results tonight, Nov. 2, after the market closes, and the stock walks in about 12% below its recent high. Shares closed Friday at $184.11 after a 6.3% drop on the day, compared with a record close of $209.05 on Oct. 9.

Analysts are looking for about $2.18 billion in revenue and $0.41 per share. Palantir’s own guide is $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, so the Street is sitting less than 1% above the middle of it.

That gap is what I want to look at, because a normal quarter for Palantir is a beat of around 6% on its own guide, and a normal beat puts revenue near $2.29 billion, not $2.18 billion. So the real question tonight isn’t whether Palantir beats. It’s how much of the beat the market has already paid for.

Friday’s Slide Looked Like Sector Fear, Not Palantir News

Friday was rough for AI stocks across the board. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 4.2%, CoreWeave (CRWV) dropped 9.7% and Nebius (NBIS) slid 10.4%, while Palantir lost 6.3%. According to 24/7 Wall St., the selling came from worries that the biggest cloud buyers will slow their spending, which would hurt the companies that rent them computing power.

I couldn’t find a Palantir-specific headline that day, and Palantir isn’t a neocloud renting out chips. In other words, I think this was mostly sentiment, and it’s the reason the stock enters the report at $184 instead of $200.

To be fair, shares are still up 46.5% from the $125.65 close on Aug. 3, the day Palantir reported second-quarter results, and they gained 29.5% the very next session. That’s the reaction investors now hope for every quarter, which is part of the problem.

How Big a Beat Is Already Baked Into the Number

Start with what Palantir has told investors. Third-quarter revenue is guided to $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion, and full-year revenue to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. Take out the first two quarters ($1.633 billion and $1.935 billion) and the third-quarter midpoint, and the guide leaves about $2.42 billion for the fourth quarter.

Analysts are already a touch above that. They see about $2.46 billion in the fourth quarter and about $8.22 billion for the year, so nobody is sleeping on a raise.

Now the history. Over the past nine quarters, Palantir has beaten the middle of its revenue guide by about 6.0% on average, and the smallest beat in that stretch was 2.8%. Consensus needs 0.9%.

Here’s what that means for growth. Last quarter, revenue grew 93% from a year earlier. The guide midpoint points to about 83%, consensus to about 85%, and an average beat would land near 94%. Sequentially, the guide implies about 12% growth over the second quarter, while an average beat would mean about 18%.

So if you’re wondering what good looks like tonight, a result right at consensus would be the smallest beat in that nine-quarter stretch by a wide margin. That alone could read as a slowdown.

I put the three numbers I’m watching for this report into my latest video, including U.S. commercial growth, free cash flow and how far the bar has moved.

What 2027 Revenue Does to Palantir’s Valuation Math

At $184.11, Palantir’s market value is about $442 billion, or roughly 54x the midpoint of this year’s revenue guide. That sounds absurd until you swap in next year. Analysts expect about $12.36 billion of revenue in 2027, which cuts the multiple to about 36x on the same price.

Here’s what the stock would be worth at a few different multiples of that 2027 estimate, using about 2.4 billion shares:

Multiple of 2027 sales	Implied share price	Vs. $184.11 close
30x	$154.30	-16.2%
35x	$180.01	-2.2%
40x	$205.73	+11.7%
45x	$231.45	+25.7%

Basically, $184 is a price for about 36x. The average analyst price target of about $219 works out to roughly 43x 2027 sales, so Wall Street is assuming the multiple holds while the revenue shows up.

The catch is that $12.36 billion needs growth of about 50% off this year’s roughly $8.2 billion, which is a lot slower than the pace Palantir is running now. That’s how a multiple can shrink even when the business keeps delivering. On earnings, the stock trades at about 114x this year’s estimate of $1.61 per share and about 79x the $2.34 estimate for 2027.

Why a Good Quarter Can Still Send the Stock Lower

The bear case is the multiple, so let’s put numbers on it. Options markets are pricing a move of about 11.65% to 13.3% in either direction after the report, depending on the source. On a $442 billion company, 12% is roughly $53 billion of market value, and from $184.11 that range runs from about $162 to about $206.

Palantir has been here before. The stock fell 7.94% the session after its third-quarter report last November, even though revenue beat the middle of the guide by 8.8%, and it fell 6.93% after a 6.5% beat in May. August went the other way, with that 29.5% jump. In other words, a beat alone hasn’t decided direction.

Not everyone is buying the premium, either. RBC rates the stock a Sell with a $90 price target and calls the risk/reward skewed negative, pointing to about 61x 2026 and 40x 2027 enterprise value to revenue. Baird sits on the other side with a $250 target and expects growth to accelerate for a 13th straight quarter.

That said, none of this is a balance sheet problem. Palantir ended the second quarter with about $9.2 billion in cash and short-term Treasuries and no debt, and it generated $1.216 billion of operating cash flow against only $14.6 million of capital spending that quarter. A sell-off would hurt anyone who bought near $209, not the company’s ability to operate.

The one concern that matters is simple. At about 54x this year’s sales, a result that only matches expectations may not be enough.

Three Numbers to Check When the Report Lands

First, the fourth-quarter revenue guide against the $2.46 billion analysts expect, since the current guide implies only about $2.42 billion. Second, the full-year range against the $8.22 billion consensus, because any raise has to clear that to impress. Third, the size of the third-quarter beat itself: near $2.29 billion keeps growth around the second quarter’s pace, while a number near $2.18 billion would not.

The report lands after the close, so Monday’s session won’t reflect it. The first real read on how investors weigh the numbers comes Tuesday morning.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. I am not a registered investment advisor, so consult a licensed professional before investing. On the date of publication, I did not have any direct or indirect position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst estimates, price targets and the valuation scenarios in this article are illustrations based on assumptions, not predictions, and actual results may differ materially. Market data pulled November 2, 2026. Figures may be delayed or contain errors and change quickly, so verify current numbers before acting. Analyst ratings and other third-party views are reported as news and are not endorsed by me. Information may have changed since publication.