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CoreWeave Stock Is Down 47% in Four Weeks Ahead of Its Nov. 10 Earnings
KEY POINTS
- CoreWeave closed at $48.42 on Nov. 4, down 47.2% from its $91.72 close on Oct. 6.
- Third-quarter results arrive Nov. 10 after the close, with analysts expecting about $3.54 billion in revenue and a loss of $1.55 per share.
- Interest expense was $640 million in the second quarter and is guided to $860 million to $940 million for the third, against $200 million to $260 million of adjusted operating income.
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) closed at $48.42 on Nov. 4, which is 47.2% below its Oct. 6 close, and the stock hit a new 52-week low of $48.02 during the session. The company reports third-quarter results on Nov. 10 after the close, so investors have less than a week to decide whether this is a bargain or a warning.
Here is what makes the setup interesting. The business has not stalled. Second-quarter revenue more than doubled to $2.58 billion, and analysts expect another big jump this quarter. What has changed is how much the market is willing to pay for a company that borrows this much to grow.
So below I will show what the stock has done, what Wall Street expects on Nov. 10, and the one line in the report that matters more than revenue.
CoreWeave Has Lost Nearly Half Its Value in Four Weeks
From Oct. 6 to Nov. 4, the shares went from $91.72 to $48.42. Measured from Aug. 12, the day after the second-quarter report, when the stock closed at $107.73, the drop is 55%. And the price now sits 65% below the 52-week high of $138.25.
There was no single trigger. 24/7 Wall St. pointed to a pile-up of worries: a short position disclosed by investors made famous by The Big Short, and Elon Musk predicting that more than 200 neocloud companies face “guppy-level death.” On top of that, a ratings agency flagged refinancing risk, since loans come due between 2027 and 2029, according to a weekly recap from TradingView.
To be fair, some of the news was good. That same recap noted that Nvidia (NVDA) agreed to buy up to $6.3 billion of unused CoreWeave capacity through 2032, and that CoreWeave brought most of 22.5 megawatts online at its first Danish data center. The stock jumped 7.3% on Oct. 28 and 7.2% on Nov. 3, then gave it back, falling 5.0% the next day and 9.9% on Nov. 4.
In other words, buyers are showing up on every piece of good news, and sellers are showing up faster. That is what a stock looks like when the debate has moved from growth to financing.
What Wall Street Expects When CoreWeave Reports on Nov. 10
Revenue is the easy part of this report. Analysts expect about $3.54 billion for the third quarter, which is 37.5% above the second quarter and 159% above the same quarter last year. That also sits inside the $3.45 billion to $3.60 billion range the company guided to in August.
| Metric | Q2 2026 reported | Q3 2026 expected |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.575 billion | $3.54 billion (guide: $3.45 billion to $3.60 billion) |
| Adjusted operating income | $128 million | $200 million to $260 million (guide) |
| Interest expense | $640 million | $860 million to $940 million (guide) |
| Loss per share | $1.32 (estimate was $1.52) | $1.55 (analyst average) |
The Q3 revenue number is not the problem. A company that is sold out on capacity and adding capacity at this pace should hit it. The harder question is what happens below the revenue line, and I will get to that next.
Looking further out, analysts have fourth-quarter revenue at $4.69 billion and full-year 2026 at $12.87 billion, which lands inside the $12.4 billion to $13.2 billion guidance range. For 2027, the average estimate is $26.47 billion, or 106% growth. That is a big number to build a case on, so the Nov. 10 commentary on next year matters.
If you want the longer version of the backlog-versus-debt argument, I walked through it in my latest video on the stock.
The Interest Bill Is the Line That Decides This Report
Second-quarter interest expense was $640 million, up from $267 million a year earlier. That is 2.4 times as much. And the guide for the third quarter is $860 million to $940 million, which at the midpoint is about 3.9 times the $230 million midpoint of guided adjusted operating income.
Now, this is not because CoreWeave is paying more for money. Its weighted average interest rate dropped to 8.3% in the second quarter from 14.9% in 2023. The problem is the size of the pile. Debt and lease obligations went from $29.8 billion at the end of 2025 to $51.6 billion at June 30, a 73% jump in six months, and the company is guiding to $35 billion to $39 billion of capital spending this year.
Let me put a number on the cushion. CoreWeave had $6.4 billion of cash at June 30. But the second quarter alone burned $5.74 billion of free cash flow ($679 million of operating cash flow minus $6.42 billion of equipment purchases), so that cash covers about one quarter at that pace. The gap was filled with $10.07 billion of financing, and the share count rose 13% in a year to 551 million.
The one concern that actually matters is the fourth quarter. First-half adjusted operating income was $149 million. Add the $230 million Q3 midpoint and you get $379 million. To reach the $960 million to $1.15 billion full-year guidance from August, the fourth quarter has to deliver $581 million to $771 million, which is 2.5 to 3.4 times the Q3 midpoint.
Does that look impossible? Not really. Hear me out. CoreWeave added nearly 500 megawatts in the second quarter, with a big chunk coming online in June, so a lot of that capacity only starts earning a full quarter of revenue from here. But if the Nov. 10 report trims the full-year guide, the market will read the interest line as the permanent feature and the margin ramp as the maybe.
There is one more risk I would not skip. A July report on the company’s $2.6 billion loan noted that it runs five years, while the weighted average remaining life of the customer contracts behind it is only 3.1 years. In other words, some of the debt outlasts the contracts that back it, and that is where renewals come in.
What $48 a Share Prices In, Using Simple Math
Here is a rough valuation at the Nov. 4 close. I used the 551 million shares reported at June 30 and the June 30 balance sheet, so treat the market cap and enterprise value as estimates.
| Item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Share price (Nov. 4 close) | $48.42 |
| Shares outstanding (June 30) | 551 million |
| Estimated market cap | $26.7 billion |
| Debt and lease obligations | $51.6 billion |
| Cash | $6.4 billion |
| Estimated enterprise value | $71.9 billion |
| Enterprise value / 2026 revenue estimate ($12.87 billion) | 5.6x |
| Enterprise value / 2027 revenue estimate ($26.47 billion) | 2.7x |
| Revenue backlog (June 30) / market cap | 3.9x ($104.2 billion) |
The stock itself is the small slice. Debt and leases are about twice the market cap, and book equity was only $5.0 billion at June 30. Basically, a small change in what investors expect for the whole capital structure moves the share price a lot, which is why a 47% drop does not require the business to fall apart.
On the bull side, the market cap is about 1.0 times the 2027 revenue estimate, and the $104.2 billion backlog is almost four times the equity value. To be fair, backlog is revenue, not profit, and it only converts if the data centers get built on time. Wall Street analysts remain upbeat: 31 of 42 rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the average price target in the latest data is $133, though that figure may not reflect the recent slide.
Three Numbers That Will Tell You What Comes Next
First, Q3 revenue against the $3.45 billion to $3.60 billion guide, and whether full-year guidance holds. Second, adjusted operating income against the $200 million to $260 million guide, plus any change to the fourth-quarter ramp. Third, the backlog against $104.2 billion at June 30, and whether lease commitments keep growing faster than contracted revenue.
The report comes out Nov. 10, and the conference call is at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. That is the first real test of whether this selloff priced in too much fear or too little.
This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial, investment, tax or legal advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. I am not a registered investment advisor, so consult a licensed professional before investing. On the date of publication, I did not have any direct or indirect position in any of the securities mentioned in this article. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Analyst estimates, price targets and the valuation scenarios in this article are illustrations based on assumptions, not predictions, and actual results may differ materially. Market data pulled November 5, 2026. Figures may be delayed or contain errors and change quickly, so verify current numbers before acting. Analyst ratings and other third-party views are reported as news and are not endorsed by me. Information may have changed since publication.
