Stats

“I always like to have a glimmer of hopefulness even in collapse.” Gord Downie, Tragically Hip


Attached are the Sales and Listings Stats updated to the end of October 2017. As typically seen in the fall market, October sales finished above September. The numbers in October were 3,073 homes sold in Greater Vancouver, up 7 per cent from September and 15 per cent above the 10 year average for October. But over the last 10 years, the average increase in sales for October over September has been 5 per cent. So the trend for this year is much the same. New listings in October were down 15 per cent to September but up 14 per cent to October last year. Keeping in mind last year the Foreign Buyer’s Tax created a holding pattern in the market through the fall. New listings in October 2017 were up only 2 per cent on the 10 year average.

The trend continues, inventory is the lightest where it’s needed most – in the townhouse and apartment market. Total active listings in Greater Vancouver have decreased from 10,122 at the end of September to 9,768 at the end of October. Most areas are sitting at 3 Month’s Supply of homes on the market with detached homes in the 6 to 7 Month Supply range and townhouses and condos in the 1 to 2 Month Supply range. The exception is West Vancouver which continues to see the higher end of the market still very soft, dating back to June 2016. In October there were 29 houses sold, resulting in 18 Month’s Supply, compared to 146 house sold (2 Month’s Supply) at the peak of the market in March 2016. The detached housing market in other areas did show an increase in October compared to the previous three months but are still in a balanced to buyer’s market state.

October saw the announcement that the Federal Government was implementing the mortgage stress test for all mortgages from National Banks for borrowers with a down payment of 20 per cent and more. Similar to the stress test implemented for all high ratio buyers (less than 20 per cent down payment), this requires that borrowers qualify at a rate 2 per cent above the negotiated rate on their mortgage. This change last year was thought to be problematic for first time buyers and the bottom end of the market. In fact, that market segment has been the driving force with the lower end subject to extremely limited inventory and continual multiple offers. So what will be the effect of these recent changes? With an implementation date of January 1, 2018 (barring any changes), the market is reacting with increased buyer demand as those buyers facing stiffer lending requirements try to purchase before January. And again, the lower end of the market is bearing the biggest brunt of this increased pressure. “Without reflection, we go blindly on our way, creating more unintended consequences, and failing to achieve anything useful.” Margaret J. Wheatley.

From the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, “Conditions continue to vary significantly based on property type. The detached home market is well supplied with homes for sale, which is relieving pressure on prices,” Jill Oudil, REBGV president said. “It remains a much different story in the townhouse and apartment markets. Buyers of these properties continue to have limited supply to choose from and are seeing upward pressure on prices. The growth in our provincial economy and job market is contributing to today’s demand,” Oudil said. “The federal government’s announcement of plans to tighten mortgage requirements for the seventh time in the last eight years also helped spur activity in the short term.”

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 1,799 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® in October, an increase of 23 per cent compared to the 1,463 sales in October of last year, and an 11.1 per cent increase compared to the 1,619 sales in September 2017. Attached sales represented 56 per cent of all market activity for the month, with apartment sales totalling 591 and townhomes at 418.

“The divide between our attached and detached markets continues to widen,” Gopal Sahota, Fraser Valley Real Estate Board president said. “Apartment activity was notably strong in October with a sales-to-actives ratio of 105 per cent, meaning that apartments are selling as fast we can list them.”

Here’s a summary of the numbers:

 Greater Vancouver: Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 3,073 – up from 2,881 (7%) in September 2017, up from 2,284 (35%) in October 2016, down from 3,714 (17%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 9,768 compared to 9,826 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 14% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 3 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market but trending to a balanced market in detached) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 66% compared to 53% in September 2017 and 56% in October 2016.

Vancouver Westside Residential: Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 556 – up from 540 (3%) in September 2017, up from 408 (36%) in October 2016, down from 700 (21%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 1,725 compared to 1,652 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 23% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 3 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market but trending to a balanced market in detached) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 60% compared to 51% in September 2017 and 54% in October 2016.

Vancouver Eastside Residential: Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 298 – up from 268 (11%) in September 2017, up from 202 (48%) in October 2016, down from 357 (17%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 1,168 compared to 1,047 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 11% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is steady at 4 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market but trending to a balanced market in detached) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 54% compared to 47% in September 2017 and 40% in October 2016.

North Vancouver Residential Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 250 – up from 210 (19%) in September 2017, up from 170 (47%) in October 2016, down from 289 (13%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 604 compared to 551 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 30% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 2 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market but trending to a balanced market in detached) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 61% compared to 45% in September 2017 and 54% in October 2016.

West Vancouver Residential: Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 46 – down from 56 (18%) in September 2017, up from 35 (31%) in October 2016, down from 148 (69%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 652 compared to 516 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 39% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 14 Month’s Supply (Buyer’s Market) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 23% compared to 20% in September 2017 and 25% in October 2016.

Richmond Residential: Total Units Sold in October 2017 was 411 – up from 379 (8%) in September 2017, up from 290 (42%) in October 2016, down from 488 (16%) in October 2015; Active Listings are at 1,408 compared to 1,370 at this time last year; New Listings in October 2017 were up 22% compared to October 2016; Month’s Supply of Total Residential Listings is down to 3 Month’s Supply (Seller’s Market but trending to a balanced market in detached) and a Sales to Listings Ratio of 66% compared to 53% in September 2017 and 57% in October 2016.